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Bitcoin Structural & Ownership Critique: Deep Dive
A detailed examination of the concentration and structural risks in Bitcoin's ownership, custody, mining, and market infrastructure -- the strongest thread from the broader "Saylor kills BTC" argument.
Three tools were used to triangulate complexity from different angles:
complexity crate — per-function cognitive complexity scores for every function in the codebase (based on Cognitive Complexity by G. Ann Campbell). Cognitive complexity measures how hard code is to understand, penalizing nested control flow more than flat branching.
clippy cognitive_complexity lint — same metric but only flags functions above a threshold, confirming the top offenders.
try_progress() mutates self.day (increments it) before returning. Then current_reward() does self.day.saturating_sub(1) to index into REWARDS. Result: the reward is always one day ahead. A user continuing a streak on day 1 gets the day-2 reward (10 coins instead of 5). On day 7, REWARDS[7] is out of bounds, hitting the unwrap_or_else fallback that returns REWARDS[0] (5 coins) instead of the intended 100-coin max reward.
TFTC Podcast Summary: Michael Howell on Global Liquidity, Bitcoin, and the Debt Maturity Wall
TFTC Podcast: Global Liquidity, Bitcoin, and the Debt Maturity Wall
Participants
Marty Bent -- Host, TFTC podcast
Michael Howell -- Founder of CrossBorder Capital (35+ years tracking global liquidity), author of the Capital Wars Substack, creator of the Global Liquidity Index (GLI)
Core Thesis
Global liquidity has peaked at $188.8 trillion (all-time high) but the momentum/growth rate is now declining. The liquidity cycle oscillates with a ~5-6 year frequency; after a 3+ year upswing, a multi-year downswing is likely beginning. This has direct implications for risk assets, especially Bitcoin.
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