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Pierre Fitness Intelligence Report - Jeanfrancois Arcand - Nov 27, 2025
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pierre-fitness-report.md

Pierre Fitness Intelligence Report - Jeanfrancois Arcand - Nov 27, 2025

Pierre Fitness Intelligence Report

Athlete: Jeanfrancois Arcand (@cheffamille) Generated: November 27, 2025 Data Source: Strava Report Period: Last 30 days

Executive Summary

Metric Value Status
CTL (Fitness) 91 Elite (70-100 range)
ATL (Fatigue) 76 Moderate
TSB (Form) +15 Well-tapered
VDOT Score 36 Recreational-Competitive
Activities/Week 8.3 Very active
Fitness Score 48/100 Moderate, improving

Overall Assessment: Very fit athlete with signs of light overreaching. Currently well-tapered and ready for peak performance.

Recent Activities (Last 10)

Date Activity Distance Duration Avg HR Suffer
Nov 27 "Du cote de l'ex" 5.9 km 29:47 145 bpm 79
Nov 26 "Ouache" 5.1 km 26:44 141 bpm 61
Nov 25 "Mou mouille collant" 7.0 km 1:03:33 119 bpm 37
Nov 24 "Reveil matin" 7.7 km 51:27 115 bpm 29
Nov 23 "Route et fleuve" 5.7 km 29:30 136 bpm 51
Nov 22 "A moitie mort!" 1.2 km 49:21 82 bpm 3
Nov 21 "Reposant Saute Ruisseaux" 6.4 km 1:23:36 96 bpm 14
Nov 20 "Fougeres en ciment!" 13.4 km 1:32:06 132 bpm 136
Nov 19 "Debut" 7.9 km 52:11 128 bpm 63
Nov 18 "Prevost->St-Adele" 5.3 km 33:56 130 bpm 41

Training Load Analysis

Current Training Stress Balance

CTL (Chronic Training Load):  91  ========================      Elite Level
ATL (Acute Training Load):    76  ====================          Moderate
TSB (Form):                  +15  ==========                    Fresh

Interpretation:

  • CTL (91): Your 42-day fitness average is in the elite range
  • ATL (76): 7-day fatigue is moderate - you've been training consistently
  • TSB (+15): Positive form means you're fresh and recovered

Weekly TSS Progression

Week TSS Trend
4 weeks ago 865 High
3 weeks ago 593 Recovery
2 weeks ago 734 Building
Last week 543 Taper
This week 637 Moderate

Training Status: Well-tapered - ready for peak performance

Training Metrics Algorithms Explained

CTL (Chronic Training Load) - Your Fitness Base

Formula: 42-day exponentially weighted moving average of daily TSS (Training Stress Score)

CTL_today = CTL_yesterday + (TSS_today - CTL_yesterday) / 42

What it measures: Long-term training adaptation - your aerobic fitness base built over weeks and months of consistent training.

How to interpret your CTL of 91:

CTL Range Level Description
0-40 Beginner Building foundational fitness
40-70 Recreational Solid fitness for most activities
70-100 Elite Your current level
100+ Professional Elite/pro athlete territory

Key insight: CTL takes ~6 weeks to significantly change. To maintain your elite fitness, keep training consistently.

ATL (Acute Training Load) - Recent Stress

Formula: 7-day exponentially weighted moving average of daily TSS

ATL_today = ATL_yesterday + (TSS_today - ATL_yesterday) / 7

What it measures: Short-term fatigue from recent training. Responds quickly to training changes.

Your ATL of 76 indicates:

  • Moderate recent training stress
  • Body is accumulating some fatigue
  • Still within sustainable range

Warning signs to watch:

  • ATL > CTL by significant margin = overreaching risk
  • Rapid ATL increase = potential overtraining

TSB (Training Stress Balance) - Form/Freshness

Formula:

TSB = CTL - ATL
       91 - 76 = +15

What it measures: Your current readiness to perform - the balance between fitness and fatigue.

TSB Range State Performance Implications
+15 to +25 Tapered/Fresh Peak race performance (you're here!)
+5 to +15 Fresh Good for quality workouts
-10 to +5 Functional Normal training state
-20 to -10 Overreaching Building fitness, expect fatigue
Below -20 Overtraining risk Need recovery!

Your TSB of +15 means: You're in prime racing form! Your fitness is high but fatigue has dissipated. Perfect time for a breakthrough effort or race.

VDOT - Running Efficiency Index

Based on: Jack Daniels' Running Formula (peer-reviewed methodology since 1970s)

What VDOT represents:

  • A single number (your score: 36) representing your running fitness
  • Correlates with VO2max but also factors in running economy
  • Used to calculate accurate training paces

Your VDOT 36 interpretation:

VDOT Range Level Typical Runner
30-35 Beginner New to running
35-40 Recreational Regular runners (you're here)
40-50 Competitive Club/age-group racers
50-60 Elite Regional/national competitors
60+ Professional Olympic-level athletes

Training Paces from your VDOT 36:

Type Pace Purpose
Easy 6:52-7:26/km 80% of training, builds aerobic base
Marathon 5:57/km Race pace for marathon
Threshold 5:24/km Lactate threshold, "comfortably hard"
Interval 4:50/km VO2max development, 400m-1200m repeats
Rep 4:29/km Speed/form work, 200m-400m

Performance Analysis

Featured Activity: "Fougeres en ciment!" (Nov 20)

Metric Value Notes
Distance 13.42 km Long run distance
Duration 92 min (1:32:06) Solid endurance effort
Elevation 412 m Hilly! (~31m/km gain)
Avg HR 132 bpm Zone 2-3 (Aerobic)
Max HR 150 bpm Good aerobic ceiling
Pace 6:52/km Strong trail pace
Calories 1,058 kcal Significant burn
Efficiency 32.6/100 Good given terrain
Intensity 73/100 Moderate-Hard effort

Key Insight: This was a demanding hilly long run with 412m of climbing over 13.4km. The "ciment" (cement) in the name says it all - your legs were working hard on those hills!

Today's Run Comparison ("Du cote de l'ex")

Metric Today Similar Runs Avg Difference
Pace 5:03/km 8:04/km 37% faster
Heart Rate 145 bpm 124 bpm +17% higher
Elevation 90 m 140 m 36% less climbing

Analysis: You pushed hard today - pace was excellent but HR was elevated. The higher HR could indicate:

  • Hard effort (intentional)
  • Accumulated fatigue from recent training
  • External factors (weather, stress, sleep)

Race Predictions (VDOT: 36)

Based on Jack Daniels' VDOT methodology using your recent 5:03/km performance:

Distance Predicted Time Pace
5K 25:54 5:11/km
10K 53:10 5:19/km
15K 1:24:11 5:37/km
Half Marathon 1:58:24 5:37/km
Marathon 4:10:44 5:57/km

Note: Predictions assume proper race preparation, flat course, and optimal conditions.

Heart Rate Zones

Based on Max HR: 166 bpm, Resting HR: 55 bpm, VO2max: 45

Zone Name HR Range Purpose
Z1 Active Recovery 55-121 bpm Recovery, warmup
Z2 Aerobic Base 121-132 bpm Fat burning, endurance
Z3 Aerobic Threshold 132-143 bpm Tempo runs
Z4 Lactate Threshold 143-154 bpm Threshold training
Z5 VO2 Max 154-166 bpm Intervals, max effort

Key Thresholds:

  • Aerobic Threshold HR: 138 bpm
  • Lactate Threshold HR: 149 bpm

Weekly Nutrition Plan

Daily Targets (Endurance Performance Goal)

Based on: 75kg, 178cm, Very Active, Endurance Performance

Nutrient Daily Amount % of Calories
Calories 2,876 kcal 100%
Carbohydrates 750g 68%
Protein 150g 14%
Fat 88g 18%

BMR: 1,668 kcal | TDEE: 2,876 kcal

Nutrient Timing Protocol

Window Protein Carbs Notes
Pre-Workout (1-3h before) 10-20g 73g Easily digestible carbs
Post-Workout (within 2h) 30g 75g Critical recovery window
Daily Distribution 38g x 4 meals Spread evenly Optimal protein synthesis

MONDAY (High-Intensity Day)

Meal Time Foods Protein Carbs Fat
Breakfast 7:00 AM Oatmeal (80g) + banana + 2 eggs + Greek yogurt 35g 85g 15g
Pre-Workout Snack 10:00 AM Toast with honey + small banana 5g 73g 3g
Lunch 1:00 PM Grilled chicken breast (200g) + brown rice (150g cooked) + steamed vegetables 45g 90g 12g
Afternoon Snack 4:00 PM Protein shake + apple 30g 35g 5g
Dinner 7:00 PM Salmon (180g) + sweet potato (200g) + mixed salad with olive oil 40g 55g 25g
Evening 9:00 PM Cottage cheese (150g) + berries 20g 15g 5g
Daily Total: 175g 353g 65g

TUESDAY (Recovery Day)

Meal Time Foods Protein Carbs Fat
Breakfast 7:30 AM Whole grain toast (2 slices) + avocado + 3 scrambled eggs 25g 45g 25g
Mid-Morning 10:30 AM Greek yogurt (200g) + granola (40g) 20g 35g 8g
Lunch 1:00 PM Turkey wrap (whole wheat tortilla) + vegetables + hummus 35g 50g 15g
Afternoon Snack 4:00 PM Mixed nuts (40g) + apple 8g 30g 20g
Dinner 7:00 PM Grilled white fish (180g) + quinoa (150g cooked) + steamed broccoli 40g 65g 10g
Daily Total: 128g 225g 78g

Lower calories on recovery day - body doesn't need as much fuel

WEDNESDAY (Moderate Training)

Meal Time Foods Protein Carbs Fat
Breakfast 6:30 AM Overnight oats + berries + protein powder + chia seeds 35g 70g 12g
Mid-Morning 10:00 AM Banana + almond butter (2 tbsp) 5g 30g 16g
Lunch 1:00 PM Chicken stir-fry with brown rice (180g cooked) + mixed vegetables 40g 85g 12g
Afternoon Snack 4:00 PM Cottage cheese (200g) + pineapple chunks 25g 25g 5g
Dinner 7:00 PM Lean beef (180g) + baked potato (200g) + green beans 45g 60g 18g
Daily Total: 150g 270g 63g

THURSDAY (High-Intensity Day)

Meal Time Foods Protein Carbs Fat
Breakfast 6:30 AM Smoothie bowl: banana, berries, oats, protein powder, honey 30g 80g 8g
Pre-Workout 9:00 AM Rice cakes (3) with honey + dates (4) 3g 75g 2g
Post-Workout 12:00 PM Recovery shake: whey + banana + orange juice 30g 60g 3g
Lunch 1:30 PM Tuna salad with whole grain bread (2 slices) + olive oil dressing 40g 55g 20g
Afternoon Snack 5:00 PM Protein bar + banana 25g 45g 8g
Dinner 7:30 PM Grilled chicken (200g) + pasta (150g cooked) + marinara sauce 48g 95g 12g
Daily Total: 176g 410g 53g

Higher carbs on intense training days

FRIDAY (Easy Day)

Meal Time Foods Protein Carbs Fat
Breakfast 7:30 AM Greek yogurt parfait with granola (50g) + mixed fruit 25g 55g 10g
Mid-Morning 10:30 AM Hard-boiled eggs (2) + whole grain crackers 14g 20g 12g
Lunch 1:00 PM Salmon salad with mixed greens + avocado + olive oil vinaigrette 35g 25g 30g
Afternoon Snack 4:00 PM Hummus (100g) + vegetables + whole wheat pita 12g 35g 15g
Dinner 7:00 PM Shrimp stir-fry (200g shrimp) + rice noodles (150g cooked) 35g 70g 10g
Daily Total: 121g 205g 77g

SATURDAY (Long Workout Day)

Meal Time Foods Protein Carbs Fat
Breakfast 6:00 AM Large oatmeal bowl (100g oats) + 2 eggs + honey + orange juice 30g 100g 15g
During Workout Variable Energy gels (2-3) + electrolyte drink 0g 75g 0g
Post-Workout Immediate Recovery shake: whey + banana + honey + milk 35g 80g 5g
Lunch 1:00 PM Large chicken burrito bowl: rice, beans, chicken, salsa, cheese 50g 95g 20g
Afternoon Snack 4:30 PM Protein smoothie with spinach + berries 25g 35g 5g
Dinner 7:00 PM Salmon (200g) + sweet potato (250g) + roasted vegetables 48g 70g 22g
Evening 9:00 PM Casein protein shake (or Greek yogurt) 25g 10g 3g
Daily Total: 213g 465g 70g

Highest calories to support long training

SUNDAY (Active Recovery)

Meal Time Foods Protein Carbs Fat
Brunch 9:00 AM Whole wheat pancakes (3) + eggs (2) + berries + maple syrup 30g 75g 15g
Mid-Afternoon 2:00 PM Grilled chicken salad with quinoa (100g cooked) + feta cheese 40g 50g 18g
Snack 5:00 PM Protein smoothie with peanut butter + banana 30g 40g 16g
Dinner 7:00 PM Lean pork loin (180g) + roasted vegetables + couscous (150g cooked) 42g 60g 12g
Daily Total: 142g 225g 61g

Weekly Nutrition Summary

Day Calories Protein Carbs Fat Training
Monday ~2,900 175g 353g 65g High
Tuesday ~2,200 128g 225g 78g Recovery
Wednesday ~2,500 150g 270g 63g Moderate
Thursday ~3,000 176g 410g 53g High
Friday ~2,300 121g 205g 77g Easy
Saturday ~3,400 213g 465g 70g Long
Sunday ~2,400 142g 225g 61g Recovery
Average ~2,670 158g 308g 67g

Weekly Sleep & Recovery Schedule

Sleep Targets by Training Day

Day Training Sleep Target Bedtime Wake Time Priority
Monday High-Intensity 8-9 hours 9:30 PM 6:00 AM CRITICAL
Tuesday Recovery 7-8 hours 10:00 PM 6:00 AM Normal
Wednesday Moderate 7.5-8 hours 9:45 PM 5:45 AM Important
Thursday High-Intensity 8-9 hours 9:30 PM 6:00 AM CRITICAL
Friday Easy 7-8 hours 10:00 PM 6:30 AM Normal
Saturday Long Workout 8.5-9.5 hours 9:00 PM 6:00 AM CRITICAL
Sunday Active Recovery 8-9 hours 9:30 PM 6:30 AM Important

Sleep Quality Targets (NSF Guidelines)

Metric Target Your Goal
Deep Sleep 13-23% of total 1.5-2 hours per night
REM Sleep 20-25% of total 1.6-2 hours per night
Sleep Efficiency >85% Time asleep / Time in bed
Sleep Latency <20 minutes Time to fall asleep
Awakenings <3 per night Brief is acceptable

Daily Recovery Protocol

High-Intensity Days (Mon, Thu):

  1. Cool-down walk: 10 minutes post-workout
  2. Foam rolling: 15 minutes targeting worked muscles
  3. Cold shower or ice bath (optional): 10 minutes
  4. Compression wear: 2-4 hours post-workout
  5. Early bedtime: Non-negotiable

Long Workout Day (Saturday):

  1. Immediate post-workout nutrition within 30 min
  2. Light stretching: 20 minutes
  3. Nap opportunity: 20-30 min early afternoon
  4. Magnesium supplement: Evening
  5. Screen-free: 90 minutes before bed

Recovery Days (Tue, Sun):

  1. Light activity: 20-30 min walk or yoga
  2. Massage or self-massage: 20 minutes
  3. Hydration focus: 3+ liters
  4. Sleep in if needed (but consistent wake time)
  5. Stress management: Meditation, reading

Weekly Recovery Metrics to Track

Metric Method Target
Morning HRV Wearable/app >baseline or trending up
Resting Heart Rate Morning measurement <baseline
Sleep Score Wearable >80/100
Muscle Soreness 1-10 scale <4 by next hard session
Energy Level 1-10 scale >7 on training days

Sleep Hygiene Checklist

Environment:

  • Room temperature: 65-68 F (18-20 C)
  • Complete darkness (blackout curtains)
  • White noise if needed
  • No electronics in bedroom

Pre-Sleep Routine:

  • No caffeine after 2 PM
  • Last meal 3 hours before bed
  • Screen-free 60 minutes before bed
  • Light stretching or reading
  • Consistent bedtime (+/- 30 min)

Morning Protocol:

  • Natural light exposure within 30 min of waking
  • Hydrate immediately (500ml water)
  • Light movement before sitting

Suggested Goals

Based on your recent activity patterns:

1. Consistency Goal (Easy)

  • Target: 4 weeks of consistent training
  • Timeline: 28 days
  • Success Probability: 85%

2. Frequency Goal (Moderate)

  • Target: Maintain 1+ runs per week
  • Timeline: 28 days
  • Success Probability: 80%

3. Performance Goal (Challenging)

  • Target: Improve average running pace by 5%
  • Current Pace: ~2.97 m/s -> Target: ~3.12 m/s
  • Timeline: 60 days
  • Success Probability: 65%

4. Distance Goal (Moderate)

  • Target: 19.3 km in a single run
  • Timeline: 30 days
  • Success Probability: 60%
  • Rationale: Based on your 13.4 km long run, you can push further

Training Recommendations

Priority: HIGH

Current Status: Some overreaching signals detected (TSB: -13 on comprehensive analysis)

Immediate Actions

  1. Include Rest Days

    • Add 1-2 complete rest days per week
    • Current activity rate (8.3/week) is very high

  2. Follow 80/20 Rule

    • 80% of training should be easy (Zone 1-2)
    • 20% can be hard (Zone 3-5)

  3. Prioritize Sleep

    • Target 7-9 hours per night
    • Bedtime: ~21:45 tonight

  4. Monitor Progression

    • Don't increase volume >10% per week
    • Your long run (13.4 km) was a big effort - recover fully

Training Week Structure Suggestion

Day Workout Intensity
Mon Easy run or rest Z1-Z2
Tue Quality workout Z3-Z4
Wed Cross-train (bike/ski) Z1-Z2
Thu Easy run Z2
Fri Rest or light activity Z1
Sat Long run Z2
Sun Active recovery Z1

Key Takeaways

What's Working

  • Elite-level fitness (CTL: 91)
  • Excellent consistency (8.3 activities/week)
  • Strong hilly long run performance (13.4 km, 412m elevation)
  • Pace improving significantly on recent runs
  • Multi-sport athlete (running, cycling, skiing, hiking)

Watch Out For

  • Heart rate elevated on recent runs (+17% above usual)
  • Some overreaching signals (TSB dipping negative)
  • High training volume may need periodic rest weeks

Next Steps

  1. Take a rest day in the next 2-3 days
  2. Aim for 8 hours of sleep tonight (bed by 21:45)
  3. Post-workout: 30g protein + 75g carbs
  4. Consider a recovery week (reduce volume 20-30%)
  5. Ready for a breakthrough workout or race if desired!

Report generated by Pierre Fitness Intelligence - Powered by MCP Enhanced with algorithm explanations, weekly nutrition plan, and sleep/recovery protocols

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