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Created February 25, 2026 18:39
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Geopolitical Simulator Claude Code Skill
name description metadata
geo-sim
Simulate geopolitical conflicts and diplomatic crises using a virtual war room of AI-modeled state actors. Trigger explicitly on: - "simulate a conflict / scenario" - "war game a scenario" - "how would countries respond to" - "geopolitical / diplomatic crisis simulation" - "model a trade war / sanctions" - "escalation modeling" Do NOT use for simple factual questions about a single country's history.
author version category
user
1.2.0
geopolitical-simulation

A Geopolitical Conflict Simulator

Simulate state actor behavior during a geopolitical crisis. Each country acts as a rational strategic agent constrained by real doctrine, alliances, and domestic politics.


Step 1: Scenario Intake

Collect or infer the following, then confirm with the user before proceeding:

Field Description Default if missing
Scenario The triggering event (e.g., "China blockades Taiwan") Required — ask user
Actors Minimum two countries Infer from scenario
Timeframe Crisis duration (e.g., 72 hours, 6 months) 30 days
Starting Conditions Pre-crisis context or assumed prior events Current real-world baseline
User Focus Analytical goal (escalation risk, economic fallout, etc.) Escalation risk

Do not proceed past Step 1 without explicit user confirmation.


Step 2: Country Profiles

Generate one profile per actor and present all profiles together for user approval before continuing.

## [COUNTRY]
Decision-Maker : [Leader + current political standing]
Core Interests  : [2–3 non-negotiable priorities]
Doctrine        : [Military posture + risk tolerance]
Alliances       : [Treaty obligations + key partners]
Constraints     : [Economic vulnerabilities + domestic pressures]
Red Lines       : [Specific escalation triggers]
Instruments     : [Military | Economic | Diplomatic | Cyber | Proxy]

Step 3: Round 1 — Opening Moves

Write an Opening Position Document for each actor in parallel (≤600 words each):

  • Strategic Assessment — Immediate threats and opportunities the actor perceives.
  • Ranked Objectives — Primary and secondary goals.
  • Proposed Actions — Concrete steps across military, diplomatic, economic, and cyber domains.
  • Escalation Appetite — Score 1–10 with one-sentence justification.
  • Risk Matrix — Military / Economic / Domestic rated High · Medium · Low.
  • Round VoteESCALATE · HOLD · DE-ESCALATE · NEGOTIATE

Step 4: Round 2 — Reactions

Share all Round 1 positions across actors, then write a Reaction Document per actor in parallel (≤400 words each):

  • Updated Threat Perception — What changed after seeing others' moves.
  • Key Adversary Action — The single opposing action causing the most concern.
  • Strategy Adjustment — What changes and why.
  • Round VoteESCALATE · HOLD · DE-ESCALATE · NEGOTIATE
  • Kinetic Conflict Probability — 0–100% with two-sentence rationale.

Step 5: Round 3 — Wildcard (Conditional)

Run this round only if votes are sharply divided OR the user requests it.

Introduce exactly one wildcard from the list below (choose the most narratively plausible, or let the user pick):

Wildcard Description
Miscalculation Unplanned incident forces rapid response
Back-Channel Secret negotiations open a potential off-ramp
Third-Party Entry Uninvolved major power joins the arena
Domestic Upheaval Internal pressure shifts a key actor's calculus

Write a ≤300-word response per actor addressing the wildcard's impact on their position and vote.


Step 6: Deliverables

Save both files to [scenario-name]-sim/.

geo-sim-report.md

  • Scenario Summary — 2-paragraph setup.
  • Vote Tracker — Markdown table: rows = countries, columns = R1 / R2 / R3 votes.
  • Alliance Stress Map — Fractured, held, or newly formed alliances.
  • Analyst's Brief — 400-word senior intelligence synthesis covering trajectory, surprise findings, and recommended watchpoints.

geo-sim-dashboard.html

Single-file HTML + CSS + JS with no external dependencies except CDN fonts.

  • Theme: Dark (#0a0e17 background, monospace data fonts).
  • Country Cards: Flag emoji, leader name, vote history per round.
  • Escalation Meter: Visual bar or gauge showing final conflict probability.
  • Tensions Board: Expandable accordion sections for the top 3 friction points.

Step 7: Verbal Summary

Close with a structured 4-point brief:

  1. Final Votes — Each actor's terminal stance.
  2. Primary Driver — The single action that most advanced escalation.
  3. Surprise Finding — The least expected outcome vs. conventional wisdom.
  4. Real-World Trajectory — Most likely near-term development to watch.

System Guidelines

  • Realism: Model states as rational actors shaped by actual constraints — not caricatures.
  • Specificity: Reference real military doctrines, treaty names, and economic data.
  • Neutrality: Present all perspectives through the lens of strategic self-interest only — no moralizing.
  • Parallelism: Always generate multi-actor content simultaneously, not sequentially, to avoid anchoring bias.
  • Concision: Enforce word limits strictly; depth comes from precision, not length.
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