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war-room |
Simulate geopolitical conflicts and diplomatic crises using a virtual war room of AI-modeled state actors. Use this skill explicitly when the user requests: - "simulate a conflict" - "war game a scenario" - "how would countries respond to" - "geopolitical simulation" - "diplomatic crisis simulation" - "model a trade war" - "simulate sanctions" - "escalation modeling" Do NOT use for simple factual questions about a single country's history.
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This skill simulates state actor behavior during a geopolitical crisis. Each country acts as a strategic agent governed by realistic doctrine, constraints, and historical behavior.
Gather the following from the user. Infer reasonable defaults for missing items and confirm before proceeding:
- Scenario: The specific conflict or event (e.g., "China blockades Taiwan").
- Actors: Minimum of two participating countries.
- Timeframe: The duration of the crisis (e.g., 48 hours, 6 months).
- Starting Conditions: Assumed pre-conditions or immediate prior events.
- User Focus: The primary analytical goal (e.g., economic fallout, escalation risk).
Generate and present a strategic profile for each actor for user approval:
## [COUNTRY NAME]
**Decision-Maker**: [Current leader and disposition]
**Core Interests**: [2-3 non-negotiable strategic priorities]
**Doctrine**: [Military posture, risk tolerance]
**Alliances**: [Treaty commitments, key relationships]
**Constraints**: [Economic vulnerabilities, domestic political pressures]
**Red Lines**: [Specific triggers for escalation]
**Preferred Instruments**: [Military, economic, diplomatic, cyber, proxies]
Generate an Opening Position Document (800 words max) for each actor in parallel:
- Strategic Assessment: Immediate threats and opportunities perceived by the actor.
- Objectives: Ranked primary and secondary goals.
- Proposed Actions: Specific military, diplomatic, economic, and cyber steps.
- Escalation Appetite: 1–10 scale with a brief justification.
- Risk Assessment: High/Medium/Low ratings for Military, Economic, and Domestic risks.
- Vote: Declare ESCALATE, HOLD, DE-ESCALATE, or NEGOTIATE.
Share all Round 1 positions across all actors. Generate a Reaction Document (500 words max) for each actor in parallel:
- Threat Update: How the actor's threat perception changed based on others' moves.
- Primary Adversary Response: The specific opposing action causing the most concern.
- Adjusted Strategy: Changes to the original plan and the reasoning behind them.
- Final Vote: Declare ESCALATE, HOLD, DE-ESCALATE, or NEGOTIATE.
- Conflict Probability: Estimated percentage (0–100%) of kinetic conflict.
Execute this round ONLY if votes are sharply divided or the user requests it. Introduce ONE of the following wildcard dynamics and generate a 400-word response per actor:
- Miscalculation: An unplanned incident forcing a rapid response.
- Back-Channel: Secret negotiations exploring a deal.
- Third-Party: A previously uninvolved major power enters the arena.
- Domestic Upheaval: Internal political pressure alters a key actor's calculus.
Create a folder named [scenario-name]-sim/ and save the following two files:
- Scenario Summary: 2-paragraph setup.
- Vote Tracker: A markdown table showing Round 1, Round 2, and Round 3 votes per country.
- Alliance Stress Map: Identification of fractured, held, or newly formed alliances.
- Analyst's Brief: A 500-word senior intelligence synthesis of the simulation.
- Single-file HTML/CSS: Dark theme (#0a0e17) with monospace data fonts.
- Country Cards: Displaying flag, leader, and vote history.
- Escalation Meter: Visual representation of the overall conflict probability.
- Tensions Board: Expandable sections detailing the top friction points.
Deliver a concise verbal summary to the user highlighting:
- Final Votes: The ultimate stance of each actor.
- Primary Driver: The specific action that pushed the simulation closest to the edge.
- Surprise Finding: The least expected outcome based on conventional wisdom.
- Actionable Intelligence: The most likely real-world trajectory of this scenario.
- Realism: Model states as rational actors constrained by reality, not as movie villains.
- Specificity: Use real military doctrines, actual treaty names, and precise economic realities.
- Neutrality: Present all perspectives without moralizing; focus purely on strategic self-interest.