Personality psychology reports "moderate stability" of traits across adulthood, but what does this mean for individuals? We simulated how likely someone is to obtain similar Big Five personality test results over a 30-year span, critically accounting for measurement error.
Method: We generated 10,000 individuals with Big Five traits following a multivariate normal distribution with empirical intercorrelations (e.g., Neuroticism with Extraversion: -0.22). We modeled personality at Time 2 using the test-retest formula: New_Score = Old_Score × r + error × √(1-r²), adding measurement error (reliability = 0.82, per Gnambs 2014) at both time points. We defined "meaningful change" as shifts exceeding 0.5 standard deviations. Crucially, we established a baseline scenario with perfect stability (r=1.0) to isolate measurement error effects, finding that 33% appear to change due to measurement error alone. We then examined: Soldz & Vaillant's (1999) 30-year correlations (E: 0.19, N: 0.20, O: 0.3
